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Sunday, May 28, 2023

It’s all hotting up – Forward of the Herd

By way of Alasdair Macleod

Expanding numbers of nationwide governments are leaving behind america sphere of affect. Alternatives from business with Asia examine favourably with emerging foreign money and banking dangers in a dollar-centric international.

Towards an imploding banking method in original economic markets, China’s renminbi looks as if a protected haven. Because of a savings-driven financial system, China’s user value inflation remained very low, when the ones of the western alliance soared.

Now we are facing a credit score crunch, as banks combat to cut back their operational gearing which has change into uncomfortably top. As a result, borrowing charges will likely be pushed upper, taking rate of interest keep an eye on out of central banking fingers. Upper rates of interest and subsequently bond yields because of a credit score crunch will escalate the banking disaster, which is most effective in its early phases.

As a result, central financial institution credit score will likely be inflated to forestall the economic banking community from collapsing and to fund emerging authorities funds deficits. It’s the prospect and realisation of those stipulations which is able to lead in the end to a cave in of fiat foreign money values, and overseas holders of greenbacks, euros and sterling are most effective starting to perceive the chance.

Geopolitics at the moment are undermining the greenback

In fresh weeks, the danger to the greenback’s hegemony has noticeably higher. Like rats deserting a sinking send, rising numbers of nations are backing off from the greenback in favour of China’s renminbi, and to a lesser extent different rising marketplace currencies. China has brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and in flip the Saudis at the moment are bettering their diplomatic members of the family with Syria.

It sounds as if that The united states’s divide-and-rule Center East coverage has been overthrown. Even Mexico is reported to be ready to simply accept renminbi in defiance of its northern neighbour’s insurance policies. And Brazil has all the time been the B in BRICS. Now Argentina has carried out to sign up for an increasing BRICS, along Algeria, Indonesia, and Iran.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Afghanistan also are stated to have an interest, together with different most probably contenders for BRICS club, which contains Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates. They all had their finance ministers provide on the BRICS Enlargement Discussion assembly held final Might. And if all of them joined, the expanded BRICS would have a nominal GDP 30% better than the USA, constitute over 50% of the arena inhabitants, and keep an eye on over 60% of world gasoline reserves.[i]

Following China’s diplomatic coup over the Center East, President Macron of France and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Eu Fee, visited President Xi in Beijing final week ostensibly to look if he may convince the Russians to imagine a peace deal over Ukraine. That were given nowhere. However the Chinese language seem to look France as a extra vital business spouse than the Eu Fee. Whilst Macron were given the entire diplomatic remedy, von der Leyen who not too long ago delivered a hawkish speech over Taiwan was once side-lined.[ii]

Macron’s recognition with China’s management is definitely attached together with his longstanding coverage of selling diplomatic and business members of the family between China and France, with China making really extensive investments in France. And it was once not too long ago introduced {that a} French exporter of LNG to China even accredited cost in renminbi as a substitute of greenbacks.

Obviously, the Chinese language took all this into consideration in fêting Macron. Moreover, Macron advised reporters at the flight from Beijing to Guangzhou that Europe should no longer be a follower of america time table referring to Taiwan, and that Eu international locations will have to no longer change into entangled in “crises that don’t seem to be ours” (Day-to-day Telegraph, 11 April). Due to this fact, Macron’s press place of job sparked a row by means of seeking to censor his previous feedback.

This episode means that France is distancing itself from EU solidarity over overseas coverage, and one wonders how little it would take to fracture no longer simply the professional EU method, which is extra consistent with von der Leyen’s place, however NATO as smartly. And we will be able to bet at what Xi advised Macron over Ukraine: get up for yourselves as Europeans and don’t act as American stooges. Then the Russians would possibly communicate however with out the American citizens on the desk. No doubt, this was once the similar message that Putin advised Macron when he visited Moscow early final 12 months.

No longer most effective has China succeeded in securing diplomatic successes within the Center East, however it has change into the go-to hegemon for international affairs — therefore Macron’s and von der Leyen’s seek advice from. In addition to BRICS, China is joint ringmaster for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Whilst her personal financial system’s GDP is 2nd most effective to that of the USA in nominal phrases ($14.7 trillion when put next with $20.89 trillion) on a PPP foundation China’s is considerably better ($32 trillion in opposition to america’s $23 trillion).[iii]

Moreover, China is starting to enlarge once more with financial institution credit score expanding, whilst financial institution credit score in the USA is contracting. The sign despatched to business companions world wide is to align their pursuits with China slightly than The united states. However the neutrals also are having a look on the state of the fiat greenback founded banking method, and more than likely concluding that it items systemic risks which it might be sensible to keep away from.

The real place of america banking method

The state of america banking method is definitely a reason for international fear. The times of low rates of interest at the moment are demonstrably over, and an review of the banking method’s survivability in the next rate of interest atmosphere is certainly being made by means of its overseas customers. And it’ll no longer have escaped their realize that US cash provide, which is most commonly constructed from financial institution deposits, is contracting. The most recent place for financial institution credit score at the different aspect in their collective stability sheets is proven within the St Louis FRED graph under.

In share phrases, financial institution credit score has no longer but declined up to it did over the Lehman disaster, however apparently to be declining extra aggressively. On the other hand, the typical elements with each and every financial institution credit score disaster are concern of losses changing a want for income and their affect on extremely leveraged financial institution stability sheets. The chart under, which is constituted of the FDIC’s financial institution ratio tables, illustrates the real place from a financial institution shareholder’s point of view.

As an approximation, we will be able to see that in accordance with the ratio of property to Tier 1 capital that all the banking method is considerably extra leveraged than it’s been since 1990, when the FDIC’s figures commenced.[iv] The ratio is now turning down, most definitely extra so when 2023 Q1 statistics change into to be had in a while.

Principally, there are two tactics wherein the ratio can go back to extra commonplace ranges. Both banks lift extra fairness capital, which in lots of circumstances can be at a cut price to guide worth and subsequently unwanted. Then again, they should scale back the asset aspect in their stability sheets. Jointly, banks are opting for the latter path.

In line with the FDIC, the aid in overall financial institution property in 2022 was once most effective $120bn, so banks had no longer addressed mortgage threat materially earlier than January. However there have been some vital stability sheet traits. Securities Held declined $362bn, however inside that overall To be had for Sale at Honest Price declined by means of $1,033bn whilst Held to Adulthood higher by means of $676bn. Obviously, there was once window dressing to hide losses. $407bn in mortgage-backed securities have been additionally offered. And money balances have been decreased by means of $981bn.

From the FDIC’s figures we will be able to conclude that the aid in financial institution credit score final 12 months was once most commonly of liquid property as a substitute of within the provision of credit score for non-financial actions. Certainly, overall loans and rentals higher by means of $980bn. Which means that over 2022, contracting financial institution credit score mirrored the banking method changing into much less liquid, as a substitute of containing threat. If the rest, the danger from financial institution insolvency has thereby higher.

The Fed produces extra up to the moment knowledge than the FDIC’s. The options under are from the Fed’s H.8 desk dated 7 April.

  • Total, financial institution credit score higher 1.6% year-on-year.
  • All Securities in Financial institution Credit score declined by means of 6% to $5,228.6bn. This contains Treasury and Company Securities (down 4.7% to $4,153.4bn), Different Securities (down 11% to $1,075.2bn). Probably, one of the vital fall is on account of a upward thrust in bond yields since final April, slightly that exact bond promoting. The real place is hid by means of unknown amounts of bonds being reclassified to a held to adulthood foundation, slightly than marked to marketplace, as we noticed with the Silicon Valley Financial institution failure.
  • Loans and Rentals in Financial institution Credit score have been up 5.1% on a 12 months in the past, however in fact declined somewhat when put next with final month to $12,065.3bn. The Business and Commercial Loans subset declined by means of 5.4% to $2,756.1. We will suppose that this determine represents revolving credit score, and that thus far it’s too early to mention that credit score is being actively withdrawn from non-financial trade actions.
  • Shopper Loans proceed to extend by means of 6.6%, however the figures don’t seem to be sufficiently big to be subject matter for stability sheet totals.
  • Money Property have fallen by means of 34% to $3,355.2bn. This line merchandise represents vault money, money pieces at some point of assortment, balances due from different banks, and from the Fed. This could also be mirrored within the FDIC’s numbers.
  • In Liabilities, Massive Time Deposits are up 43.9% to $1,843.9bn, however that is reasonably small when put next with the drop in Different Deposits, that have declined by means of $1,384bn since February 2022. With the autumn within the Money Asset line at the asset aspect, it indicates an important decline in general liquidity, each nearly and from a regulatory point of view.

This leads us center of attention at the trade in liquidity over the past 12 months. Taking the trade in Money Pieces, the trade in Different Deposits, and subtracting the rise in Massive Deposits which might be considered risky investment, implies a complete deterioration of $2,192bn. A majority of these figures are seasonally adjusted, which taken over a 12 months don’t seem to be materially other from the real. However in assessing the backing for the asset aspect of the banking method’s collective stability sheet, we should use non-adjusted numbers.

We see that whilst overall property have risen over the 12 months by means of $523bn, residual property much less liabilities declined by means of $35.7bn to $2,158.6bn to provide a ratio of the banking method’s overall property to its notional capital of 10.7 instances. However on a correct risk-based capital ratio of 13.65 instances in accordance with the FDIC’s numbers in the second one chart above, fairness backing falls to $1,692 — frightening within the context of losses that can stand up within the coming months.

Whilst at 13.65 instances this ratio is excessively top when put next with the previous, it’s lower than banking ratios in different jurisdictions. And matched with this top leverage, it’s the deterioration of stability sheet liquidity which is relating to.

Derivatives are the elephant within the room

A few years in the past, I used to be advised by means of a a success corporate physician that he was once now not in that line of labor as a result of he didn’t consider somebody’s accounts, control or audited. This can be a smart caveat to use to our research of america banking method when the use of publicly to be had knowledge.

We all know that rigidity exams of the banking method are designed to be triumphant, as a result of no regulator will log out on paperwork which verify its personal failure. It’s much less about quantifying system-wide threat of financial institution insolvency, and extra about offering the broader public with a sense of safety.

Banks are sellers in credit score, and far in their trade is matching deposit duties which may also be withdrawn at very little realize with property which can’t be readily realised. This is the reason liquidity, or the facility to satisfy deposit withdrawals is so vital. And because of this the deterioration in liquidity famous in our research is a caution sign.

Moreover, the truth that banks’ accounts are ready in keeping with the approval of regulators signifies that they will have to nonetheless be handled with scepticism. For instance, why is it that by-product duties don’t seem to be correctly accounted for in assessing the situation of person banks, when repos, which might be an identical duties, are? Spinoff duties are a ways better for some banks than all the stability sheets of the blended banking programs, or even nationwide GDPs. The desk under display the by-product publicity of the twenty maximum uncovered US banks, and the ratio of derivatives to buyer deposits, which might be the important supply of stability sheet investment.

Admittedly, no longer all by-product threat will have to be measured by means of their notional quantity. Credit score default swaps, which might be prone to predominate in home banking actions, don’t dedicate members to settling their notional quantities, which might be reference values most effective. However foreign currency echange forwards and swaps and commodity derivatives in addition to offered choices do divulge banks and different members to settling their complete quantities. Foreign currencies greenback publicity for US banks on my own was once estimated in a up to date BIS paper at $80+ trillion, 4 instances US GDP, and which incorporated the next statement:

“Embedded within the foreign currency echange (FX) marketplace is massive, unseen greenback borrowing. In an FX change, for example, a Dutch pension fund or Eastern insurer borrows greenbacks and lends euro or yen within the “spot leg”, and later repays the greenbacks and receives euro or yen within the “ahead leg”. Thus, an FX change, together with its shut cousin, a foreign money change, resembles a repurchase settlement, or repo, with a foreign money slightly than a safety as “collateral”. In contrast to repo, the cost duties from those tools are recorded off-balance sheet, in a blind spot. The $80 trillion-plus in remarkable duties to pay US greenbacks in FX swaps/forwards and foreign money swaps, most commonly very non permanent, exceeds the shares of buck Treasury expenses, repo and industrial paper blended. The churn of offers approached $5 trillion according to day in April 2022, two thirds of day-to-day international FX turnover.”

BIS Quarterly assessment, December 2022

The BIS article is going on to indicate that FX change markets are susceptible to investment squeezes, and that non-US banks owed $39 trillion in greenbacks from OTC derivatives, binding america banking method into exceedingly top international systemic threat.

Commodity derivatives are very similar to foreign currency echange positions, and US banks also are energetic in those markets, each in regulated futures and OTC derivatives. The dangers inherent in derivatives are significantly more than mere contract failure, with chains of counterparties normally thinking about OTC markets, spreading systemic threat from all economic centres into america banking method and vice-versa. The right kind inclusion of those liabilities on financial institution stability sheets on a gross foundation (versus a netted stability) no longer most effective blows a hollow within the regulatory regime however would alert the general public to the real leverage and subsequently the hazards to the banking method. Little surprise that those liabilities are hidden from public view.

Coping with the fall-out from credit score contraction

Contracting credit score and the impact on rates of interest have glaring penalties for person debtors. Moreover, financial actors all over all the US financial system have tailored their behaviour to get pleasure from closely suppressed rates of interest and the in a position availability of credit score beneath the belief that those stipulations will proceed. Only a few businessmen and customers understood that they have been in a credit score bubble, which since rates of interest started to upward thrust is starting to implode. We’ve witnessed the preliminary results on bonds and fiscal property, which take their valuation cue from the rate of interest outlook. For now, the bubble implosion has paused, as power costs declined from their peaks and the preliminary sense of panic has receded. However even with out additional credit score contraction, we will be able to see that the results of a readjustment to much less unfastened credit score stipulations are undermining the economies of the western alliance, which at the moment are anticipated to go into a recession.

The hazards going through some non-financial sectors are already being flagged. For instance, in line with the Fed’s H.8 shape Actual Property Loans higher over a 12 months in the past by means of $555bn to $5,385bn. At a time of emerging rates of interest and with hindsight, why the collective banking method higher its lending to this sector is tricky to justify. Will banks now see the mistake of doing so? At what level will they take into account that the well-liked contraction of credit score undermines collateral values to the detriment of each the financial institution and its debtors?

The solution to this and an identical riddles is that there’s a sluggish dawning on us the entire penalties of banks changing into increasingly more threat averse.

As rates of interest start to correctly mirror the stipulations of contracting credit score, credit score for personal and industrial genuine property will likely be withdrawn. No longer most effective will financing prices upward thrust, however the finance had to take care of asset values will change into unavailable. And the withdrawal of financial institution credit score may also unfold the disaster into industrial loan sponsored securities and different asset sponsored securities. It’s the regional and smaller banks which might be maximum uncovered to this threat, and already there’s rising hypothesis over the opportunity of a disaster within the industrial belongings sector.[v]

Penalties for overseas buyers

To this point, we have now famous that overseas holders of greenbacks had been alerted to the fragility of the dollar-based banking method, and that get entry to to their deposits and investments is dependent upon the permissions of the USA, its five-eyes safety community, and Western Europe’s NATO participants. And they’ll even be considering forward about how the Fed, the ECB, and different primary central banks will reply if the banking place deteriorates additional. They’ll be posing the next what-ifs:

  • What if rates of interest generally tend to upward thrust additional, pushed by means of contracting credit score availability as a substitute of central financial institution financial insurance policies? Will that result in extra financial institution screw ups because the credit score had to strengthen the mountain of derivatives dries up?
  • What if america and its allies face a recession? How will that have an effect on the greenback and different currencies, when put next with China’s renminbi, and whose financial system is rising?
  • What if China and Russia between them get a hold of sounder financial choices to the dollar-based foreign money method? What is going to be the affect at the greenback and its buying energy for commodities and their derived merchandise?

Central to working out those results will likely be to look ahead to the reaction by means of the related financial government to contracting financial institution credit score. As a result of GDP is the majority settled by means of transfers of financial institution credit score, a discount in its amount mechanically results in a decline in nominal GDP. The effects anticipated will likely be a upward thrust in unemployment, a decline in authorities revenues, and an build up in welfare prices. In different phrases, authorities deficits will build up and so will their borrowing necessities.

This might position america and its greenback in an ungainly place. In fresh a long time, america has change into increasingly more reliant on overseas purchasing of US Treasury debt, however for the reason that greenback was once weaponised in opposition to Russia that supply of investment is declining. Certainly, within the 12 months to January, overseas holders decreased their holdings by means of $253bn. And inside that overall non-government holdings higher by means of $163bn, whilst overseas governments decreased theirs by means of $416bn.

The valuation of those holdings can be undermined by means of contracting financial institution credit score, as a result of until credit score call for falls extra abruptly than its provide, rates of interest and bond yields will likely be pushed upper by means of a credit score scarcity. Below those instances, a central authority is confronted with having to factor bonds at upper yields with a purpose to fund its deficit, without reference to its central financial institution’s financial coverage. And as the United Kingdom present in its a couple of investment crises within the Nineteen Seventies, confronted with this case overseas holders of each bonds and a foreign money flip dealers.

This may increasingly appear glaring to a overseas holder of US property and the greenback. Already primed to cut back their publicity to weaponised greenbacks in favour of China’s renminbi, overseas promoting of greenbacks (and possibly much less clearly as smartly of euros, sterling, and yen which in a similar fashion face a mixture of contracting financial institution credit score, emerging rates of interest, industrial financial institution insolvency, or even central financial institution insolvency) it might seem that the times of conserving reserve currencies headed by means of the greenback may come to an finish. International liquidation of the western alliance’s currencies and bonds will then conflict with escalating investment necessities because of the results of recession on their governments’ price range.

From our research of deteriorating liquidity and top leverage in america banking method — no longer so leveraged because the allied banking programs in Europe and Japan — it’s transparent that the banking disaster is in its earliest phases. Moreover, the off-balance sheet nature of by-product duties and the on-balance sheet losses hidden by means of sympathetic accounting rules counsel that central banks must stand in the back of their industrial banking programs of their entirety. Makes an attempt to impose the self-discipline of ethical danger selectively will nearly undoubtedly backfire.

However having additionally got bonds and different property thru quantitative easing on the very best imaginable costs, central banks themselves are most effective solvent by means of both recapitalising on the worst imaginable time, or by means of increasing their foreign money duties by means of impossible amounts.

The evolved international faces an ideal hurricane, reputedly sure to wreck its fiat currencies. By means of distinction, China and Russia between them have a reputable plan for the commercial enlargement of Asia. Each governments’ price range are strong, with China’s banking method savings-driven as a substitute of the consumer-driven choice within the west. Which means that user costs in flip are strong, and the renminbi has the fascinating traits of a reasonably sturdy foreign money.

Moreover, the temper tune popping out of Russia is that they’re making an allowance for returning the rouble to a gold usual. And failing that and even along with it, they’re running on a separate gold or commodity sponsored foreign money for commodity pricing and business agreement functions. There are glaring advantages of this type of transfer. Rates of interest and rouble-denominated bond yields will decline through the years from present ranges of 10%, to a strong 2%–3% base stage. And no longer most effective will volatility in power and commodity costs be considerably decreased for the most obvious good thing about financing manufacturing, however the risky greenback will likely be banished from their business — a long-standing ambition for each Russia and China.

It’s infrequently unexpected subsequently, that the non-aligned international is gravitating clear of greenbacks and euros to renminbi and different currencies.

Worth inflation in western economies won’t decline to focus on

Macroeconomists be expecting falls in costs because of a stoop in call for: in different phrases, they look ahead to a surplus of manufacturing — a Malthusian glut. There may well be a unfavorable value impact from stock liquidation, however this is just a non permanent impact and does no longer set the next path for the overall value stage, which is mirrored within the worth of a risky fiat foreign money measured by means of a normal value stage.

The anticipated stoop in call for as a recession progresses is believed to be as a result of unemployment rises, and subsequently expanding numbers of unemployed customers could have much less to spend. Definitely that is true. However on the similar time, manufacturing declines. And whilst the stability of provide and insist will range for various items and services and products, in some circumstances product output may even decline extra abruptly than call for for it. Due to this fact, it might by no means be stated {that a} recession results in a normal surplus. Certainly, Say’s legislation, which was once traduced by means of Keynes to pave the way in which for his state-directed financial theories, is obvious at the topic.

Whilst manufacturing nonetheless price range intake throughout the medium of cash and credit score and a normal stability between them is maintained, it’s the worth of commodities which seems prone to result in value declines, since the onset of a recession may also be anticipated to result in a commodity surplus, earlier than extractive industries reply by means of reducing their output. Measured in fiat currencies, oil and gasoline costs are in particular risky. However the courting isn’t so simple.

The chart under displays the cost of WTI oil in US greenbacks and formally designated recessions, which might be shaded. The correlation between the 2 is unclear, with the oil value emerging early within the designated recessions in 1990 and 2007, whilst it fell sharply forward of the temporary recession in 2020. However it did fall after the recessions in 1991, 2001, and 2008 have been smartly underway. The place there’s a correlation, the associated fee results of recessions on oil and different commodities have been most definitely exaggerated by means of speculative process in derivatives, which even drove front-end WTI costs in short into unfavorable territory in April 2020.

There also are value adjustments emanating from adjustments within the foreign money’s valuation. WTI oil costs rose from under 0 in April 2020 to a top at $120 in most effective twenty-three months. However even earlier than the Russians invaded Ukraine, whilst it was once extensively anticipated that they wouldn’t invade the associated fee had risen to $90.

Due to this fact, as banks tighten credit score stipulations and the western alliance’s economies flow against recession, the overall stage of user costs won’t stoop as regularly forecast by means of professional our bodies, and as a result adjustments within the normal stage of costs will predominantly mirror adjustments of their respective fiat currencies’ buying energy.

The macroeconomic fallacy predicting a normal glut is in the back of an IMF document this week which forecast rates of interest in the United Kingdom returning to “ultra-low ranges”. Or slightly, that was once the media document on Bankruptcy 2 of the IMF’s International Financial Outlook, which was once seeking to assess the (legendary) herbal interest rate at the assumption that value inflation would go back to focus on. You should put cash on it being incorrect. No quantity of mathematical modelling can seize diversifications within the stage of human self belief in a foreign money, and subsequently the repayment depositors would require to lend expanded credit score in it.


All of the indicators level to a termination of the arena’s fiat foreign money regime. And with it, there will likely be a thorough trade in central banking. For the reason that central banks within the western alliance are all technically bankrupt themselves, their survivability and that in their currencies is questionable.

Out with the fiat foreign money method will cross the SDR and central financial institution foreign money reserves. Handiest credible gold backing for currencies will ensure their worth measured by means of the overall stage of costs. It’s going to create really extensive hardship for the 1.3 billion folks in North The united states, Europe, Japan, and the antipodes. Towards that, the three.8 billion in Asia, in addition to an extra billion in Africa, and lots of the stability of world humanity could have the potential of a greater existence.

The level to which the ones folks inhabiting the arena of yesteryear undergo is dependent upon how lengthy it takes for our statist institutions to recognise their coverage mistakes, the sensible barriers of the state, and to influence its electors that freeloaders can’t be the state’s duty. All of the science of macroeconomics has led us right into a state of fable and should be deserted. Unfastened markets should be embraced once more, and the state minimised.

The best way to answer the Asian hegemons is to inspire unfastened business and eliminate business price lists up to imaginable for the mutual good thing about all international locations. We should mimic their overseas insurance policies, which might be to recognise different governments and cultures, most effective intervening to give protection to our direct pursuits. This was once the knowledge of Lord Liverpool, Castlereagh, and Wellington in charting a path for Britain following the Napoleonic Wars, atmosphere the path for Britain to change into essentially the most robust financial pressure within the 19th century.

However the place we will be able to have one thing awesome to them is in a admire for belongings rights as a result of that’s the one nice flaw in each Russia and China, the place state pursuits use the legislation or primary pressure to deprive electorate in their belongings and freedom.

In the meantime, it is sensible for us as people to get out of a failing fiat foreign money economic method and hoard prison cash in defence of what wealth we have now. And that’s gold.

[i] See Silk Street Briefing: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/information/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/

[ii] Politico reported in this right here: https://www.politico.ecu/article/china-divide-rule-eu-france-unity-ursula-von-der-leyen-emmanuel-macron-xi-jinping/ g

[iii] See International Economics: https://www.worldeconomics.com/Indicator-Knowledge/Financial-Dimension/Revaluation-of-GDP.aspx

[iv] See the FDIC’s spreadsheet on Ratios by means of asset measurement crew. The chart is for all insured establishments. https://www.fdic.gov/research/quarterly-banking-profile/index.html

[v] See this from Moody’s: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/whats-the-real-situation-with-cre-and-banks-doom-loop-or-headline-hype/

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